No favourite yet for Zambia's top job

Friday, 22 August 2008 18:47

Zambia's ruling party will have to overcome its internal divisions to retain power following the death of president Levy Mwanawasa, analysts said on Thursday.

As world leaders paid tribute to Mwanawasa, who died aged 60 in a Paris hospital on Tuesday, speculation had already begun in Zambia as to who might succeed him.

Vice-president Rupiah Banda has taken charge of the country, but presidential elections should be held within 90 days to elect his successor.

"There is no known front-runner at the moment," said Neo Simutanyi, a political science lecturer at the University of Zambia.

But there is no shortage of pretenders.

Prior to his death, the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) had announced that 19 senior members of the party had shown interest in succeeding Mwanawasa.

But if the two main opposition parties - the Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development - can agree a joint candidate, then they would be in with a real chance, Simutanyi said.

It was their failure to do so in the 2006 election that split their vote and allowed Mwanawasa to win a second term in office.

This time around, the two parties are in talks to discuss an electoral pact in which they could unite behind a joint contender.

The main opposition leader, Michael Sata of the PF, is seen as a potential successor should the ruling party fail to unite behind a single candidate.

"Everything now depends on how the government and ruling party manages the transition period of 90 days," said Lee Habasonda, executive director of the Southern African Centre for Constructive Resolution of Disputes (Saccord).

Whoever takes over the reins of the ruling MMD, for example, will first have to overcome the internal divisions that wrecked the party even before Mwanawasa's death, said Habasonda.

A short-term show of support for the acting president (Banda) would be crucial, he added.

"If the MMD does not rally behind the vice-president, the chances of the opposition winning will be very high," said Habasonda.

"Banda may attract a sympathy vote," he added.

Veteran politician and diplomat Banda, 71, is widely seen inside his party as an outsider who was plucked from political obscurity by Mwanawasa after the MMD suspended elections for the post of vice-president at its 2006 congress.

Although Banda is currently acting president of Zambia, the ruling party itself has no vice-president.

But whoever does emerge as the ruling party candidate will have to contend with the government's growing unpopularity.

The cabinet's standing was not helped by a decision by ministers to award themselves huge pay rises. This was in the absence of Mwanawasa, who was admitted at the end of June.

Rising food and fuel prices in the nation will also work against the ruling party, Simutanyi said.

There is also a question mark over the ability of the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) to hold presidential elections within 90 days.

"It will all depend on the availability of resources," said Elijah Rivuta of the Foundation of Democratic Process, a civic group that specialises in election monitoring.

"We are not sure whether the ECZ has the budget for that," he added.

"Given the circumstance, the nation will have to go ahead with the old voters' roll."

But some observers have expressed concern that the old voters' register, featuring voters who have died or lost their cards, will not be up to the job and will thus reduce the number of legal ballots.

Some political players have considered amending the constitution to delay the election, prolonging the transition period, but so far there has been no concrete proposal along these lines.

As Zambia's third president, Mwanawasa won praise for his handling of the copper-rich country's inflation-prone economy and for cracking down on corruption.

He also won friends abroad for being one of southern Africa's first leaders to speak out against President Robert Mugabe and the deteriorating crisis in Zimbabwe, its neighbour.

On Tuesday, world leaders paid tribute to Mwanawasa's legacy.

US President George Bush described him as a "champion of democracy".