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 South African President Thabo Mbeki faces a regional summit this weekend without having brokered a deal among Zimbabwe's main rivals, again raising questions over his often criticised approach to the crisis, analysts say.
The summit will be held on Mbeki's home turf in South Africa and follows three days of meetings he mediated earlier in the week in a push to reach a deal to end Zimbabwe's protracted crisis. This week's talks in Harare broke up without a deal between all three rivals participating in the negotiations, and Mbeki is expected to update his peers, who appointed him as facilitator, on his mediation efforts. While he will arrive at the summit with the crisis still unresolved, simply managing to bring Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe and his arch-rival Morgan Tsvangirai to the table may have provided Mbeki a measure of vindication for now, some analysts say. "It gives him a better operating space because now he can actually report substantial progress, and it came at a critical point for the pressure that he was under, both domestically and internationally," said political analyst Tanana Mpanyane of the Institute of Security Studies. But pressure remains for Mbeki's longstanding mediation efforts to achieve results, the analyst said. "Whatever progress and achievements made during this week may amount to nothing if a deal is not achieved soon," said Mpanyane. "It has to happen soon. Otherwise the goodwill and limited trust may disappear." Some in the region have come out strongly against Mugabe, in sharp contrast to Mbeki's refusal to publicly criticise the 84-year-old leader. Botswana has threatened to boycott the summit if Mugabe participates without a negotiated deal to end Zimbabwe's crisis. The country has also urged its neighbours not to recognise Mugabe's re-election in a June presidential run-off widely condemned as a sham. Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, who remains hospitalised after suffering a stroke in June, last year compared the country to "a sinking Titanic" because of its economic crisis. But Mugabe would likely not have accepted South Africa's mediation if Mbeki had publicly criticised his regime or introduced sanctions, Mpanyane said. "To the extent that the approach by President Mbeki led to Mugabe and ZANU-PF to get to the negotiation table ... then the much aligned strategy did pay off," said Mpanyane, referring to Zimbabwe's ruling party. "No other country outside South Africa would have been able to get Mugabe to sit around a table." Mugabe publicly praised Mbeki's facilitation efforts this week, while Tsvangirai had previously called for him to be stripped of his role. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit this weekend will see Mbeki take over as chairman of the 14-nation regional bloc. He is unlikely to change his approach after he takes on that role, said Neuma Grobbelaar, director of studies at the South African Institute for International Affairs. "It's hard to ascribe directly the deterioration in Zimbabwe to South African 'non-action', but a more critical and vocal stance might have given the Mugabe regime pause and perhaps assist to arrest the deterioration at an earlier stage," she said. Zimbabwe's economy has been in meltdown, with the world's highest inflation rate officially put at 2.2 million percent and major food shortages. "By taking this soft approach, we have perhaps in many respects allowed this to continue much longer than it ever should have," Grobbelaar said. Siphamandla Zondi of the Institute for Global Dialogue said the Mbeki government was unlikely to put forward "dramatic views" and would remain on a more cautious path. "They seem not to be in favour of naming and shaming." Mpanyane argued that Mbeki had not failed in Zimbabwe but that the
lack of a deal pointed to "a very dangerous situation and a drawn out process for all parties". "The window of opportunity begins to close for a peaceful resolution to the crisis in Zimbabwe." SAPA
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