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 DISTURBING resonances are evoked by the spectacle of Russian tanks pouring into South Ossetia: Finland, 1939; Hungary, 1956; Czechoslovakia, 1968; Afghanistan, 1978. Superficial resemblances must be distinguished from reality.
This conflict is far more complex than the ideological simplicities that prevailed in the days when the Soviet Union flexed its imperial muscles in the name of defending Communism. But some similarities do exist with previous invasions – most obviously the sheer terror spread among the local population and a death toll which could be as high as 2,000 in just two days. The other comparison is the less direct, but still very real, fear that the conflict spreads across the region and a world which is suspicious of an increasingly nationalistic Russian regime. As far as the latter goes, the conflict in the Caucasus is on the cusp: if coolly and diplomatically handled, it can be defused with the interests and faces of all parties saved by multifaceted compromise; if that does not happen, this crisis is potentially very dangerous indeed and could spread rapidly. While it is tempting to view the conflict in terms of the large Russian bear bullying its smaller neighbour, it is not quite as simple as that. The strategy of Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili has been opportunistic. This Columbia and George Washington University-educated, pro-West reformer, who until last Thursday held the moral high ground, has contrived to put himself in the wrong by assuming the character of an aggressor. His forces' intrusion into South Ossetia allowed Russia to pose as policeman rather than invader. With Russian forces now occupying both that region and the other breakaway sector of Abkhazia, it is in a position of power. The two regions might conceivably be won back for Georgia, but that could only happen in exchange for significant concessions – and that is where western interests are involved. For, although the ethnic dispute is real enough and arouses acute passions, in geopolitical terms this conflict is mainly about two other issues: Georgia's application for Nato membership and the oil pipelines running across its territory. Both are infuriating to Russia. The notion of Georgia, so recently embedded in the Soviet Union, joining a rival military alliance is seen as a threat. Moscow is equally enraged by an oil pipeline that can pump more than a million barrels of crude oil per day bypassing its territory and undermining its ability to manipulate western governments. When it comes to post-battle negotiation, as surely it must, Russia will seek advantage in both areas if it is to make any concessions over the 'Georgian' regions it now controls. If Russia is still struggling with its post superpower status, Georgia is travelling in a more constructive direction. It is a multi-party democracy, and western-friendly state that deserves support – when it behaves responsibly. What that country, and particularly the people of South Ossetia, needs most is an immediate ceasefire, accompanied by international mediation. As some of the images in this newspaper today show, civilians are dying, among them the young and the elderly. An estimated 30,000 refugees have already fled the war zone and they will need shelter and sustenance in a difficult to reach and poor part of the world. The United Nations must give what assistance it can; whether or not Russia accepts this help will in itself be telling about its ambitions for the region. Then the UN must tackle the diplomatic problem of the breakaway provinces. Since their populations are invincibly hostile to Tbilisi, secession may have to be legitimised, however much Saakashvili dislikes the idea. If the price is that Russia ends its opposition to Georgia's Nato membership and accepts international guarantees for the security of the oil pipelines, that may be a price Georgia and its western allies have to pay. Much depends on a great unknowable – what Russia will do next. It is in a position of military strength, but it is also a country that respects strength. Standing firm in the cause of sovereign democracy, while recognising the rightful aspirations of this recovering superpower, is the twin-track path to peace and security. (Scotsman).
FACTBOX-Developments in Georgia Following are developments in Georgia at 2200 GMT on Sunday: ** Denotes new or updated items: ** French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner arrives in Tbilisi at the head of an international mediation mission. They were due to hold talks with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili then fly to Moscow on Monday. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says Georgia should unconditionally withdraw its forces from the conflict zone in its breakaway region of South Ossetia. Tbilisi international airport was hit in a Russian air strike on Sunday, the Georgian Interior Ministry said. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said Russia intends to take over his country to secure energy supply routes from central Asia. Georgia told Russia on Sunday it had ceased fire in South Ossetia and called for immediate negotiations on a full ceasefire agreement and "termination of hostilities". Georgia pulled troops from Tskhinvali, capital of South Ossetia, early on Sunday after three days of heavy fighting with Russian forces and pro-Russian separatists. Russia bombed a military airport and aeroplane construction plant on the outskirts of the Georgian capital Tbilisi on Sunday evening, Georgian Interior Ministry said. Russia's navy also entered the conflict, deploying a flotilla off Georgia's Black Sea coast. The navy said the ships later moved towards a Russian Black Sea port. In a possible opening of a second front in the conflict, Georgia accused Russia of starting a military operation earlier on Sunday in Abkhazia, another separatist region of Georgia to the west of South Ossetia. Moscow denied involvement. -- An EU-U.S. delegation headed for Georgia to try to broker an end to the conflict. -- Georgia said Russia had landed 4,000 troops by sea in Abkhazia overnight. OTHER MOVES: The United States says it will offer a U.N. Security Council resolution later on Sunday condemning the Russian military "assault" against Georgia as unacceptable. Pope Benedict called for an immediate halt to the fighting, expressing "profound anguish" that the violence had caused many innocent victims. -- The White House on Sunday deplored Russia's military action in the Georgia conflict as "dangerous and disproportionate" and warned it could have a "significant long-term impact" on relations between Washington and Moscow. -- Britain advised its citizens to leave Georgia as soon as possible unless they had an urgent need to stay. (Reuters)
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