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What next in Zimbabwe's crisis? |
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Friday, 08 August 2008 |
 Below are answers to questions on what could happen next in Zimbabwe's political crisis after more than two weeks of power-sharing talks between President Robert Mugabe's party and Morgan Tsvangirai's opposition.
Where do the power-sharing talks stand?
Regional mediator Thabo Mbeki will travel to Harare on Saturday and is expected to take part in talks.
South Africa's Business Day newspaper reported that Mugabe and Tsvangirai were expected to hold a crucial meeting in Harare on Sunday aimed at finalising a deal.
Mugabe has said progress has been made, however, he has dismissed media reports of a draft agreement that would turn him into a ceremonial president and hand Tsvangirai power as executive prime minister.
A joint appeal from the two sides earlier this week for an end to violence strengthened optimism for a deal.
How could power be shared?
Who gets which job has always been the most difficult question.
Tsvangirai went into the talks saying he should lead Zimbabwe based on the results of a first round presidential election in March.
He beat Mugabe in that but pulled out of the run-off because of attacks on his supporters.
Mugabe had always made clear he had to be recognised as president.
As well as the suggestions of making Mugabe a ceremonial president, the idea had been floated of making Tsvangirai a vice president - although the opposition is unlikely to accept anything that would not give him real power.
Questions such as who would control security forces are also vital.
How will the two sides proceed if the deal is reached?
Should a deal be inked, it could take at least two weeks to convene parliament and push through expected constitutional changes creating new government posts and implementing other parts of the agreement, analysts say.
Where do security and military chiefs fit in?
A South African newspaper reported that senior Zimbabwean security officials had met with members of South African President Thabo Mbeki's regional mediation team.
Analysts say they will need to sign off an any deal to improve the chances of political stability.
Security and military chiefs have been described as the behind-the-scenes powers that hold wide sway over Mugabe.
Can regional mediation work?
No one wants a positive answer to that question more than Mbeki, who has faced a storm of criticism at home and abroad for not taking a tough line on Mugabe, a strategy that he had said would only exacerbate tensions.
Mbeki, who may have the best chance of influencing Mugabe, could score a political coup if a deal is struck before he hosts a regional heads of state summit in South Africa on August 16.
What is at stake?
Millions of Zimbabweans long for stability that could help rebuild a country ravaged by the world's highest inflation rate of 2,2 million percent, crippling food and fuel shortages and a virtually worthless foreign currency.
Political stability could encourage millions of Zimbabweans who have fled the hardships to regional countries to return home.
Analysts say significant foreign investment in Zimbabwe will only start to flow if a democratic government is formed. (Reuters)
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